Whiteout Survival · Frozen Treasure
Enter the number of roses you need for the rewards you want. The analyzer reverse-calculates which opening strategy — Open All / Red+Gold / Red Only / Hybrid — minimizes your keystone cost. Rose drops are sampled box-by-box from the actual probability table, and the simulation includes box milestone rewards (1 pt per opened box, cumulative +380 roses) as well as byproducts (Fire Crystals, hero shards, Hero Gear Lucky Chests). Each strategy is simulated 10,000 times by default.
Roses per box (actual probabilities ÷ 60 keystones)
| Quality | E[roses] | roses/key | cost/rose |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brilliant (Red) 8.5% | 13.40 | 0.223 | 4.5 ks |
| Exquisite (Gold) 24% | 4.22 | 0.070 | 14.2 ks |
| Common (Silver) 67.5% | 1.75 | 0.029 | 34.3 ks |
Silver's per-rose cost (34.3 keystones) exceeds the opening cost itself — paying the 90-keystone refresh to skip it pays off from here. Hero Gear Lucky Chests drop at a flat 8% across all qualities, i.e. proportional to total boxes opened.
Box Milestone Rewards (1 pt/box, cumulative, once per event)
| Threshold (boxes opened) | Reward | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|
| 20 boxes | +30 | 30 |
| 50 boxes | +50 | 80 |
| 150 boxes | +100 | 180 |
| 300 boxes | +200 | 380 |
Milestones count boxes opened, so strategies that open more boxes hit the +380 rose bonus with fewer keystones. This is what flips the verdict.
Click "Analyze" to see results.
■ Fixed: actual drop table (from event screen) / Open 60 · Refresh 90 / Open-All has zero refresh cost (auto-refresh) / milestones 1 pt per box, cumulative.
■ Variable: target roses, drop rates, costs, simulation count. ■ Higher simulation counts stabilize the expected value (20,000+ recommended when results are close).
■ Hero Gear Lucky Chest drops at a flat 8%, so expected count = boxes opened × 0.08. Treasure boxes (the rare upside that returns keystones) are not counted in keystone math because they're uncertain — if you get one, it's pure gain. Other non-rose rewards don't directly affect the rose target and are excluded. Free daily refreshes (3/day) are not counted.