Events
Point Simulator (shooter-scoring events)
For events where each attempt consumes c items and yields p points, with optional bonus triggers granting free attempts: computes the items you need to exceed a target with 95% confidence. Currently covers PK Battle (c=20, p=2).
Applies to any event where each paid attempt consumes a fixed number of items (c) and yields a fixed number of points (p), and where bonus triggers occasionally add free attempts. The current live example is PK Battle (c=20, p=2), but the same formula covers reskinned seasonal variants — only the display terms change.
Parameters λ and μ_K (bonus trigger rate and burstiness) are optional; measurement inputs are provided if you want to fit them from a small sample of actual play.