Whiteout Survival
Proof in numbers.
Expected value, Monte Carlo, and ROI for Whiteout Survival. Reproducible calculators and analysis instead of vibes-based tier lists.
Events Reward optimization for time-limited events — EV / Monte Carlo
Mid-Autumn Bingo Coin Calculator
Work back the coins and yen needed from the rewards you pick: board expectancy, line milestones and daily missions, with Monte Carlo odds.
Frostfire Mine Score Simulator
Reverse-engineer your expected Frostfire Mine points from your march allocation. Estimates vein gathering, swaps, Outbursts, Smelter rank and Kathy's Efficient Mining using measured unit values.
Twin Star Adventure — Dice Calculator
How many dice you actually need and which packs are worth buying — computed via Monte Carlo over the real board, including bonus tiles and lap effects.
Kasia's Wish House Mithril Calculator
Two-way engine for Kasia's Wish House: turn a budget into expected Mithril, or turn a Mithril target into the cheapest purchase plan. Monte Carlo, exhaustive pack search, server-age aware.
Point Simulator (shooter-scoring events)
For events where each attempt consumes c items and yields p points, with optional bonus triggers granting free attempts: computes the items you need to exceed a target with 95% confidence. Currently covers PK Battle (c=20, p=2).
Wander Theater Star Coin Calculator
Pick the items you want, get the required Charms, rounds, and cheapest payment plan. Milestone rewards from cumulative Charm use are folded into the coin requirement via iterative convergence.
Frozen Treasure Reverse Analyzer — Target Roses → Minimum Keystones
Given a target rose count, Monte-Carlo compares opening strategies (Open All / Red+Gold / Red Only / Hybrid) and returns the expected keystone cost with confidence intervals.
Combat Buff math, rallies, and composition optimization
Refined Fire Crystal Planner
Work backwards from the buildings you want to raise to the weeks and Fire Crystal a plan costs, with a Monte Carlo run on how much the finish week varies.
Articles
Events The Mid-Autumn bingo, answered in numbers｜Why full-clear is the only line
49.04 lanterns per board, and half of all rounds take all 50. Stopping at three lines drops your next-board promotion odds from 20% to 6%. Nine decisions this event puts in front of you, settled with exact math and a 57-round field log.
Events SVS Preparation Phase: A Day-by-Day Routine｜Stop Leaving Points on the Table
The SVS preparation phase scores a different category each weekday. A state governor's real week, matched against the Mon–Fri scoring table: hold your resources and spend them on the day they score.
Combat Buff Reference — by Event
Look up which buffs apply in each event, searchable and event-by-event. 14 events × 11 buff types, community list reorganized and flagged unverified.
Events Treasure Hunter: What Floor 100 Costs
Expected pickaxes, yen cost, and a 6-day purchase plan to reach Floor 100 in Treasure Hunter, from a probability model and Monte Carlo.
Events Twin Star Adventure by the Numbers — Dice needed & spend efficiency via Monte Carlo
Turn Twin Star Adventure planning into numbers: required dice, spend efficiency, bonus-tile hit rates, and target-reach cost via Monte Carlo.
Combat Sunfire Castle: Maximizing Occupation Time, Derived From the Rules
Sunfire Castle is decided by total occupation time alone. Rallies, reinforcement insertion, the pre-launched relay, and the value of the first grab — reasoned from the rules, without the mind games.
About this site
We don't aim for coverage. We only cover topics where numbers decide the answer. Each page is structured as: quantitative conclusion → assumptions (conservative baseline) → data → calculator. Values that depend on server age are disclosed at the top of each article.