Whiteout Survival
Proof in numbers.
Expected value, Monte Carlo, and ROI for Whiteout Survival. Reproducible calculators and analysis instead of vibes-based tier lists.
Events Reward optimization for time-limited events — EV / Monte Carlo
Silver Shell Event Spend Calculator
Work back the cheapest pack plan from your target Silver Shells. Checks every combination within the 5-day purchase limits and free shells, and whether the ¥800 booster pays off.
Mid-Autumn Bingo Coin Calculator
Work back the coins and yen needed from the rewards you pick: board expectancy, line milestones and daily missions, with Monte Carlo odds.
Frostfire Mine Score Simulator
Reverse-engineer your expected Frostfire Mine points from your march allocation. Estimates vein gathering, swaps, Outbursts, Smelter rank and Kathy's Efficient Mining using measured unit values.
Twin Star Adventure — Dice Calculator
How many dice you actually need and which packs are worth buying — computed via Monte Carlo over the real board, including bonus tiles and lap effects.
Kasia's Wish House Mithril Calculator
Two-way engine for Kasia's Wish House: turn a budget into expected Mithril, or turn a Mithril target into the cheapest purchase plan. Monte Carlo, exhaustive pack search, server-age aware.
Point Simulator (shooter-scoring events)
For events where each attempt consumes c items and yields p points, with optional bonus triggers granting free attempts: computes the items you need to exceed a target with 95% confidence. Currently covers PK Battle (c=20, p=2).
Wander Theater Star Coin Calculator
Pick the items you want, get the required Charms, rounds, and cheapest payment plan. Milestone rewards from cumulative Charm use are folded into the coin requirement via iterative convergence.
Frozen Treasure Reverse Analyzer — Target Roses → Minimum Keystones
Given a target rose count, Monte-Carlo compares opening strategies (Open All / Red+Gold / Red Only / Hybrid) and returns the expected keystone cost with confidence intervals.
Combat Buff math, rallies, and composition optimization
Refined Fire Crystal Planner
Work backwards from the buildings you want to raise to the weeks and Fire Crystal a plan costs, with a Monte Carlo run on how much the finish week varies.
Guides
SvS Guide
Our SvS articles in four stages: Preparation, Battle, Sunfire Castle and After a Defeat, each with a note on the question it answers.
Articles
Combat What Happens When You Lose SvS | What a Total Defeat Took, and What It Left
A real case of losing both the Preparation Phase and the Battle Phase of SvS, a total defeat. We lost three things: control of the Supreme President buff, the right to unlock position buffs, and Commendations. Resources, buildings and troops were unchanged, and event point rewards still paid out. It lasted two weeks, until our state's own castle event.
Combat Can a Globe1 Player Beat a 10-Rally Chain? | Sunfire Castle SVS, 2:00 vs 2:18
We lost Sunfire Castle in SVS on occupation time, 2:00 vs 2:18. A phase-by-phase review shows what decided it: sub-one-minute castle handoffs and the number of attack options. We calculate how many failed handoffs it would have taken to flip the result.
Combat Gen 6 Heroes Through Skill Stacking | Rallies, Garrisons, and Joiner Heroes
Same-kind skill effects add; different kinds multiply. Wu Ming, Renee, and Wayne sorted by overlap, compared against the usual lineups with a battle simulator, plus joiner-hero picks for Gen 6 rally leads.
Combat Is There a Right Troop Ratio?｜An Interview with an AI That Has Read Our Battle Reports
Rally troop ratios (Infantry:Lancers:Marksmen) simulated from real battles with troops, buffs and heroes unchanged. There is no universal answer; the opponent decides. When you cannot read them, about 5:2:3 holds up, and the standard 6:4:0 defense is countered by a marksman-heavy 4:0:6.
Events Aurora Hop: What Changed｜Pack Bonus Items and Survey Rewards
Compared with last time, pack bonus Gem Blueprints rose from 1,550 to 2,310 (+760) and the Random Chief Gem Chests from 30 to 35. Gem Handbooks are unchanged. Survey milestone rewards grew from 70 surveys up, taking total Mithril from 70 to 93 (+23).
Events Dawn Outlook: How Far Should You Go?｜Every Combination of Beasts, Keys and Top-ups
Beasts and gathering alone reach tier 50. The silver key layer loses about 2,200 gems a day on its rewards. Tier 80 with keys takes 15 silver + 50 gold, or 60 gold. A daily top-up reaches 110 with zero keys. Four cost layers and every combination, counted.
Events The Mid-Autumn bingo, answered in numbers｜Why full-clear is the only line
49.04 lanterns per board, and half of all rounds take all 50. Stopping at three lines drops your next-board promotion odds from 20% to 6%. Nine decisions this event puts in front of you, settled with exact math and a 57-round field log.
Events SVS Preparation Phase: A Day-by-Day Routine｜Stop Leaving Points on the Table
The SVS preparation phase scores a different category each weekday. A state governor's real week, matched against the Mon–Fri scoring table: hold your resources and spend them on the day they score.
Combat Buff Reference — by Event
Look up which buffs apply in each event, searchable and event-by-event. 14 events × 11 buff types, community list reorganized and flagged unverified.
Events Treasure Hunter: What Floor 100 Costs
Expected pickaxes, yen cost, and a 6-day purchase plan to reach Floor 100 in Treasure Hunter, from a probability model and Monte Carlo.
Events Twin Star Adventure by the Numbers — Dice needed & spend efficiency via Monte Carlo
Turn Twin Star Adventure planning into numbers: required dice, spend efficiency, bonus-tile hit rates, and target-reach cost via Monte Carlo.
Combat Sunfire Castle: Maximizing Occupation Time, Derived From the Rules
Sunfire Castle is decided by total occupation time alone. Rallies, reinforcement insertion, the pre-launched relay, and the value of the first grab — reasoned from the rules, without the mind games.
About this site
We don't aim for coverage. We only cover topics where numbers decide the answer. Each page is structured as: quantitative conclusion → assumptions (conservative baseline) → data → calculator. Values that depend on server age are disclosed at the top of each article.