Twin Star Adventure by the Numbers
— Dice needed & spend efficiency, via Monte Carlo

01Why skill of play doesn't matter

The rules of Twin Star Adventure:

• Roll a 1–6 die and loop around a 26-tile board, lap after lap
• Collect the reward of the tile you land on (coins, fire crystals, gear...)
• Save up coins and exchange them in the Polar Shop for what you want
• Shark damage and the cumulative-pip rank are side rewards

Together, these make coin income essentially a function of the number of rolls. Neither pip choice nor tile targeting creates an edge. The task is simply: roll every die. The only real choices are where to spend your 6 crystal dice and which pack to buy.

02Board composition (confirmed)

Most of the board (~18 tiles) drops fire crystals and gear — zero coins. The coin engine is the four treasure tiles, especially the single MAX-2000 high tile. The explore chest spawns at a random position and pays "tile reward + chest" when landed on (chest: 2% for 3,000 coins / 8% for 2,000 / 10% for 1,500; the remaining 80% is generic badges).

High treasure tile — coin distribution

The average is 500 coins per landing — that's what "avg 500" means.

03Board output: about 70 coins per roll

The sim needs one number: average coins per roll. Measured three times, the value converged.

The early "99" from 26 rolls was an overshoot: a small sample that happened to hit the 2,000 treasure early. With more rolls it settles to about 70 coins/roll. Trusting the small sample would halve the estimated dice needed, so it was pinned down with more data. "Net board coins" here strips out shark, progress, member passive income, and mission rewards — the pure landing value.

04Off-dice rewards are step-shaped

Apart from tile landings, two side rewards accumulate as you roll — and both require you to roll to gain them. This mirrors the Frozen Treasure (gacha-box) event: not linear in roll count, but a step function that jumps at each threshold.

Shark reward (cumulative damage)

Thresholds at 200/1000/2000/3000/4000/5000 pay 200/300/500/800/1200/1500 coins etc. The cap is low, and with teammates helping, normal rolling usually clears it.

Progress reward (cumulative-pip rank) — the top rungs are out of reach

05Where to spend your 6 crystal dice

06Monte Carlo results

Calibrated on the three measured samples (fixed seed, 50k runs). Example target: 30 Mithril = 24,000 coins.

07Cheapest spend for all 30 Mithril

Free dice (7-day total) = 132

• Daily free: 1×7=7 · Daily missions: 12×7=84
• Route: 4 · Ranking: 3×7=21 · Panel: 16

Paid packs (dice only — no coins included)

Prices in JPY (¥). Convert to your local currency as needed.

08Bottom line

• Skill of play barely matters — rolling every die is the baseline.
• Normal dice can't pick pips, so laps and pip-rank are fixed at "rolls × 3.5".
• The only edges: where the 6 crystal dice go (high treasure tile) and which packs you buy (cheapest first).
• Board output is ~70 coins/roll. The small-sample "99" was an overshoot.
• Shark & progress are step-shaped; the top progress rungs (1,600 / 3,500) cost tens of thousands of yen — out of reach.
• Pick your target's coin cost, and both required rolls and cheapest spend follow.